Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 195.385398 231.978338 275.571821 331.926067 403.717656 493.318801 6.155375e+02
2025-10-05 158.798577 205.361465 267.439061 358.506572 492.710654 690.119552 1.016644e+03
2025-10-12 136.455818 187.463301 261.235468 380.341477 577.486678 910.764605 1.568071e+03
2025-10-19 120.170822 172.954100 254.323897 396.323032 655.642983 1151.863324 2.309466e+03
2025-10-26 107.009985 159.877813 245.727825 405.648357 723.752905 1405.112637 3.276325e+03
2025-11-02 95.748987 147.500257 235.239005 407.993817 778.342492 1657.627504 4.487860e+03
2025-11-09 85.145005 134.380307 220.779159 398.762031 805.000885 1859.725324 5.789960e+03
2025-11-16 76.446629 123.207260 207.767868 389.096228 827.217916 2064.350320 7.396476e+03
2025-11-23 69.104374 113.419229 195.692646 378.517799 843.660798 2264.399035 9.336445e+03
2025-11-30 67.217954 113.230980 201.959311 409.715160 980.967387 2953.640558 1.546800e+04
2025-12-07 62.974663 108.052036 197.359254 414.564107 1047.370882 3451.142704 2.217620e+04
2025-12-14 59.880853 104.690370 195.970623 426.954232 1142.810747 4165.488474 3.435442e+04
2025-12-21 55.693877 98.867094 188.839016 424.132824 1192.615494 4754.569326 4.998910e+04
2025-12-28 54.703256 99.379028 195.775550 461.093286 1403.163944 6505.369530 1.087752e+05
2026-01-04 53.215045 98.660821 199.791881 491.320036 1610.413582 8680.928222 2.521986e+05
2026-01-11 51.323589 96.844712 200.910896 513.488972 1802.054543 11252.668136 6.319062e+05
2026-01-18 49.099997 94.043795 199.184179 526.454730 1963.971690 14093.318183 1.735027e+06
2026-01-25 46.618903 90.402215 194.810070 529.719875 2083.513881 16970.019310 5.300712e+06
2026-02-01 43.668583 85.413166 186.303516 516.880931 2112.151871 18924.052786 1.490916e+07
2026-02-08 40.970941 80.766946 178.133334 503.467242 2132.234242 20954.248957 5.611676e+07
2026-02-15 38.472448 76.369012 170.101832 488.821528 2138.528618 22921.035876 3.496674e+08
2026-02-22 38.328048 77.476054 177.118065 532.116929 2544.642904 35123.155402 NaN
2026-03-01 36.872793 75.310377 174.767137 538.873870 2718.657590 44209.925935 NaN